Saratoga Phil

SARATOGA TRAVERS DAY 8/23/2014

Race 1
8 Cosmic Gold 7-2 4th
7 Liam's Map 5-2 PLACE
6 Lucid 8-1 SHOW
5 Three Alarm Fire 3-1 WIN $5.10
Race 2
1a Dispersion 4-1 scratched
9 Potthast 3-1
2 Face the Music 5-2 WIN $6.40
Race 3
10 Blue Pigeon 3-1* PLACE
6 John Bailey 5-1
3 Ocala Jim 4-1 WIN $9.70
7 Hidden Vow 7-2
Race 4
8 Today's Agenda 4-1* SHOW
2 Ludicrous 3-1
5 Frosted 6-1* PLACE
6 Waging War 7-2
Race 5
1 Enchanting Lisa 4-1 PLACE
2 Chat 5-1 WIN $12.60
5 Palace Dreams 7-2 4th
9 Divine Luck 3-1
Race 6
8 McIlroy 3-1* WIN $6.90
7 Excellent Royala (Ire) 20-1
12 Adirondack Dancer 8-1 4th
10 Lawer Jim 5-1
6 Powerful Instinct 4-1
2 Picozza 7-2
Race 7
1 Dear Mama (Arg) 5-1 scratched
10 Divided Attention 3-1 WIN $5.00
2 Shayjolie 4-1 PLACE
3 Pretty Fancy 7-2 SHOW
Race 8
4 Bad Debt 3-1* 4th
6 Star Channel 4-1
2 North Slope 7-2 SHOW
3 Brickyard Kitten 10-1 PLACE
Race 9
5 Dayatthespa 5-2 scratched
2 Centre Court 5-1 4th
4 Strathnaver (GB) 6-1
7 Filimbi 2-1
3 Abaco 4-1 WIN $10.60
Race 10
8 Coup de Grace 2-1 SHOW
2 Wildcat Red 4-1
7 The Big Beast 5-2 WIN $7.70
6 Fast Anna 6-1 PLACE
5 Noble Moon 20-1 4th
Race 11
4 My Miss Aurelia 3-1 PLACE
2 Better Lucky 4-1 4th
8 Hot Stones 6-1
5 Willet 6-1 SHOW
Race 12
7 Wicked Strong 7-2 PLACE
6 Tonalist 3-1 SHOW
2 Bayren 2-1
8 Kid Cruz 12-1 4th
Race 13
5 Sky Painter 3-1* PLACE
4 Fizzy Pink (GB) 5-2
9 Weave 8-1
10 Bartiromo 10-1
3 Invading Humor 4-1 WIN $12.80
Race 14
3 Thurgood 7-2*
6 Wake Up in Malibu 4-1
5 Morning Calm 3-1 WIN $8.80
10 Bluegrass Flash 6-1 SHOW

Best Bet Race 4 the 8 Today's Agenda.


Race 1  

8-7-6 

 8 Cosmic Gold 2nd start of meet(3rd career) working well with meets top jock riding for a trainer overdue for a win. Can sit off pace of front runners and use previous race experience to his advantage at the tricky 7f distance. 7 Liam's Map a Pletcher 3 year old great works, sire Unbridled Song great stats FTS, Would be no surprise if he wins. 6 Lucid Dream Darley stable FTS for hot trainer/jockey combo Kiran Mclaughlin/Irad Ortiz.

Race 2  

1a-9-2
 
1a Dispersion FTS for Chad Brown a profitable angle, working great and bred well  for turf. 9 Potthast 2nd time starter, stretching out for Motion. Beaten favorite in debut should like today's added distance. 2 Face the Music 2nd time starter has experience at todays distance. Rallied well to finish 2nd in debut. Trainer McGaughey doesn't push his horse first out and doesn't win often at the Spa with 2 year old starters.  

 Race 3  

 10-6-3-7

10 Blue Pigeon 2nd start off 30 day+ layoff trainer wins 40% past three meets(P3M) with this angle. Broke maiden here last year. Will be ready to fire today for the win. 6 John Bailey broke maiden on last over this track. Finished second to the choice in debut. 3 Ocala Jim third start off  layoff. Finished second in last will be flying late. 7 Hidden Vow 1 for 23 lifetime record has Castellano riding. May improve 3rd start for new trainer Bruce Brown. 3rd off layoff.

Race 4  

 8-2-5-6

8 Today's Agenda finished second to runaway winner in debut. Working well for second start. Trainer A Dutrow past three Spa meets with 2 year old non FTS 5 wins from 10 races. Castellano stays here. 2 Ludicrous $770k purchase hot riding Irad Ortiz aboard for debut. Jock/Trainer winning at 44% 4/9 201314 at the Spa. 5 Frosted a Godolphin/McLauglin owner trainer combo 44% wins P3SM (past three Spa meets). Barns main rider is on second choice. 6 Wagon War ran well in debut here on 8/2 and the experience should help for a trainer that wins 24% maiden 2nd starters.


Race 5

 1-2-5-9

1 Enchanting Lisa drops from Gr 3 to allowance level. Working well for 3rd start of the year. Has tactical speed and can sit just off pace in the garden spot. 2 Chat in second US start, 4th in career. Irad rides for Sheppard 2/5 40% win 2013-14. 5 Palace Dreams is the speed in the race. Making 2nd start off layoff. Is 2 for 2 at today's distance and 3-2-0-1 on the Spa lawn. Loses winning jock from last race to the choice but picks up J L Ortiz regular and winning rider in all her previous races. 9 Divine Luck just doesn't like to win 20-1-4-4 record. Had trouble in last, makes second start off layoff and finished ahead of the choice here last year. Maybe finds a field can get 2nd career win.

Race 6

8-7-12-10-2

8 McIlroy makes 2nd start off layoff for Chad Brown. J L Ortiz riding for trainer 5-3-0-0 P3SM. Has 3 wins at today's distance. Just missed in last and should be much fitter for 2nd start of meet. 7 Excellent Royale(Ire) based on the PP's likes to be on or near the lead in past few Euro races. Maybe pops at a price for a hot trainer/owner compo 37% win 7 for 19 P3SM. 12 Adirondack Dancer has won at distance and track. Making 4th start of the year and is due to win won soon. Can sit just off pace 10 Lawyer Jim 2nd off over 180 days for trainer Lisa Lewis 43% win 3 for 7. Has won over the track. 2 Picozza could surprise field but will have to run a career best. 6 Powerful Instinct CBrown/Castellano combo. Shortens up to a mile distance which appears to not be best distance 4-0-0-1 record at mile. 

Race 7 

1-10-2-3

1 Dear Mama (Arg) is the only horse in the race to win at today's 7f distance (twice). 3rd off layoff, possible bounce in last. Bullet 4f work over the track 5 days ago. Gets meets leading rider Javier Castellano. 10 Divided Attention drops for a Gr3 to today's Alw level. Hasn't raced since Nov2013. Gets first time Lasix. Working very well for a trainer that wins 27% with 1rst off .90 day layoff . May need a race. 2 Shayjolie turf to dirt, turn back from mile to 7f. Good works for 2nd start of meet. 3 Pretty Fancy turn back from route to sprint. Should have plenty of run left when others are tiring.

Race 8 

4-6-2-3

4 Bad Debt jock/trainer 43% win 6 for 14 3SM. Makes first start off claim and drops below level of claim. 7 yr old gelding has 6 wins from 14 starts at todays distance and 12 of 14 in money. 6 Star Channel 2nd start of meet has finished in front of choice . Fits well at this level . 2 North Slope 2nd of meet back to preferred turf surface. 3 Brickyard Kitten strong rally in last at shorter distance. 2nd off layoff and 2nd out for new trainer A Dutrow. Needs more improvement to win here. 

Race 9 

5-2-4-7-3
  
5 Dayatthespa horse for course, 4-3-1-0. 2nd start of meet and year. Needed last race. Maybe lone speed here and will try to slow down the pace and wire the field. 2 Centre Court has won at track and distance. Is a Gr1 winner. The layoff is a concern but has won fresh in the past. 4 Strathnaver (GB) makes 3rd start off layoff. Just missed 2 back in the GR1 Just a Game. Slight turn back in distance from last. 7 Filimbi beat choice in last. Steps up to Gr1 company. May be this good. 3 Abaco closed well in last may need more ground against this bunch.

Race 10

8-2-7-6-5

8 Coup de Grace if he can replicate the rally from Gr 2 score in last the others will be running for second. 2 Wildcat Red turns back from route to sprint in 3rd off layoff. Best career race was 3rd last time 3rd off layoff earlier this year. Won only time trying today's 7f distance. 7 Big Beast must avoid a speed dual with 6 Fast Anna or will have nothing left in the tank to hold off the late runners. Has never run this far and both wins were wire to wire. He did rally to just miss in debut so maybe can rate.  5 Noble Moon lost to Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial in last. Comes in off the layoff, broke maiden in first start and won a GR 2 off a layoff this year. Likes to be on or near the lead and may get used up chasing pace.

Race 11

4-2-8-3
 
4 My Miss Aurelia just missed in last in first race in over a year. Had trouble and may have needed that race. Should be fitter 2nd back and can rate just off the pace in the garden spot and get first run at the leaders. 2 Better Lucky beat choice in last and will be rolling late in 3rd start off layoff. 8 Hot Stones her 7f race 2 back int the Gr3 Bed of Roses makes here dangerous here. turns back from route to sprint. 3 Kipling's Joy  big step up in class today. Does have the ability to rally and that may help at today's 7f distance and could close out the superfecta at a big price.

Race 12  

7-6-2-8
 
7 Wicked Strong won the Jim Dandy in last by rating in 2nd just off the speed. Hope for same tactic here and will get first run and will be tough to beat down the stretch. 6 Tonalist the Belmont Stakes winner couldn't get by the top choice in last, makes second start off layoff and should have no issue with today's added distance. 2 Bayern the speed will try to wire them. May be difficult to run down if can slow the pace early. 8 Kid Cruz will rally and should be up for a minor award.

Race 13  

5-9-10-3  

5 Sky Painter trainer/owner combo 44% win P3SM. Jockey/trainer combo also 44% win P3SM. Gets Lasix for first start since Nov. Drops from Gr 1  to Alw level for 2014 debut. 4 Fuzzy Pink(GB) 2nd off layoff for Chad Brown. Comes out of live race where the top tow finishers came back to win their next starts. 9 Weave has improving Beyer numbers in 4 straight starts. Makes 3rd start off layoff. Needs another jump up to win here. 10 Bartiromo had some trouble in last. Previous two race results would be very competitive here. 3 Invading Humor another making 3rd start off layoff and has won two races in a row. Previous jockey chose Fizzy Pink over this one, but picking up Castellano should not hurt chances.

Race 14

3-6-5-10
 
3 Thurgood broke maiden in last over track and at today's distance. 2nd start off 30 day layoff. Trainer Clemente P3SM with horse making 2nd start off 30+ day layoff 40% wins, 10-4-2-1.
6 Woke Up in Malibu finished 2nd twice on turf going shorter, added distance may help. 5 Morning Calm comes off a layoff and broke maiden in debut. Gets leading rider Javier Castellano for return. Has faced better in the past. May need a race. 10 Bluegrass Flash  2nd start of meet had lots of trouble in last and still managed to finish 3rd at this level and distance. Switches Jockey's to the red hot riding Irad Ortiz.


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