Saratoga Phil

 Commonwealth Turf (G3)

The Grade III Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs is shaping up to be a fantastic betting race. While the favorite is tough, the action in the jockey colony has created a golden opportunity for value. The play here is to back the horse in peak form and take advantage of the generous odds.

Breaking Down the Top Four Contenders

1. #3 Montador (5-1 ML) — The Top Pick: This horse is coming off a sharp win and is in the best form of his career. The big knock is that top jockey Tyler Gaffalione jumped off, but the horse landed the perfect replacement: elite rider Luis Saez. With a strong closing kick, Montador is the value play ready to step up in class.

2. #2 Troubleshooting (7-2 ML) — The Favorite: The most logical threat in the race. This horse is a proven graded stakes winner and comes from the high-powered Brad Cox barn. The fact that Gaffalione chose this mount speaks volumes, but the low odds offer little cushion if he doesn't fire.

3. #8 Chapman's Peak (9-2 ML) — The Consistent Threat: Another dangerous runner from the Brad Cox stable. This colt is a winner of his last two races and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. A must-include in all exotic wagers based on consistency and powerful connections.

4. #4 Anegada (12-1 ML) — The Key Longshot: A horse that has previously hit the board in graded stakes, providing proven class at excellent odds.

The Betting Strategy

• Win Bet: $20.00 on #3 Montador

• Exacta Box: $2.00 on #2, #3, #8

• Trifecta Box: $1.00 on #2, #3, #4, #8

• Exacta Part-Wheel: $1.00 #3 with #4, #9, #10, #11

Total Wager: $60.00

Good luck at the windows!

Cheers!